How the F-35 Is Stalling, Even Before Take-Off
By Matthew Potter | Feb 23, 2010 BNET
Lockheed Martin (LMT) trumpets the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) as the most important aircraft in the U.S. aviation inventory. Unfortunately the bad news keeps coming out about this critical modernization program.
When the defense budget was released in early February, the administration confirmed a restructuring that delayed production of the F-35 and spent more on development and testing. This drove up the price of the aircraft and the program as a whole, and Lockheed agreed to give up some money as part of the new deal.
Now there is more bad news–a nine-month delay in completing testing with a potential for a delay of as long as two-and-a-half years. Procurement costs will increase again. This news leaked out because the U.S. had to brief the major allies such as Australia, Great Britain and the Netherlands who paid development money up front and are understandably upset at the rising costs. They will have to choose between buying fewer aircraft or finding more money. The U.K. defense budget, in particular, is under pressure due to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as investments in modernization programs like the JSF.
The Air Force has admitted that the program may be facing a major cost and schedule breach. Programs are managed to baselines established at different points in the program. These normally are definition of concept; prototype completion; and readiness for limited production. If a program suffers cost increases of more than five percent or schedule changes of six months, then they breach. If a program sees a cost increase of more than 15 percent, Congress must reaffirm it. Due to the schedule and production changes, the JSF is in this position.
An increase of $10 million per aircraft (for 2,000 of them) adds up to another $2 billion that has to be found. Matters are reaching a point where it must be asked: Can the U.S. afford the JSF? Will it be able to meet the requirements of the military when it is fully deployed? How much more money and time are Congress and the U.S. people willing to spend?
The Obama Administration has talked about ending programs that are wasteful, over budget, and behind schedule. These have included the F-22 fighter, the VH-71 Presidential transport helicopter and NASA’s Orion and Constellation manned space vehicle programs. Despite its problems, the JSF is unlikely to join that list. The administration considers it a key program and there are no ready alternatives to replace the aging force of fighter and attack aircraft.
In short, the F-35 is simply too big to fail.
Matthew Potter works supporting US Army aviation programs. He holds degrees in history as well as studying at the Defense Acquisition University. He has written for Seeking Alpha and at his own website, Defense Procurement News.
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